形成科学研究的良好假设

假设是对两个或两个以上的关系的一种试探性陈述。变量.It is a specific,关于你期望在研究中发生的事情的可测试的预测。例如,一项旨在研究睡眠剥夺与测试成绩之间关系的研究可能有一个假设,即:“这项研究旨在评估一个假设,即睡眠不足的人在测试中的表现会比没有睡眠不足的人差。”“

Let's take a closer look at how a hypothesis is used,formed,and tested in scientific research.

How Is a Hypothesis Used in the Scientific Method??

在科学方法上,是否涉及心理学研究,生物学,或者其他地区,一个假设代表了研究人员认为在实验中会发生什么。

科学方法包括以下步骤:

  1. Forming a question
  2. Performing background research
  3. 创造一个假设
  4. 设计一个实验
  5. 收集数据
  6. 分析结果
  7. Drawing conclusions
  8. Communicating the results

假设是研究人员预测的两个或更多变量之间的关系,但这不仅仅是一个猜测。Most of the time,the hypothesis begins with a question which is then explored through background research.只有在这一点上,研究人员才开始提出一个可检验的假设。

In a study exploring the effects of a particular drug,这个假设可能是研究人员期望这种药物对特定疾病的症状有某种作用。在心理学方面,the hypothesis might focus on how a certain aspect of the environment might influence a particular behavior.

除非你正在创建一个具有探索性的研究,your hypothesis should always explain what youexpect在你的实验或研究过程中发生。

Remember,a hypothesis does not have to be correct.While the hypothesis predicts what the researchers expect to see,研究的目的是确定这个猜测是对还是错。When conducting an experiment,研究人员可能会探索一些因素,以确定哪些因素可能有助于最终的结果。

In many cases,研究人员可能会发现一项实验的结果do not支持最初的假设。When writing up these results,the researchers might suggest other options that should be explored in future studies.

How Do Researchers Come up With a Hypothesis??

In many cases,研究人员可能从一个特定的理论中得出一个假设,或者建立在先前的研究基础上。例如,先前的研究表明压力会影响免疫系统。So a researcher might for a specific hypothesis that:"People with high-stress levels will be more likely to contract a common cold after being exposed to the virus than are people who have low-stress levels."“

In other instances,researchers might look at commonly held beliefs or folk wisdom.“物以类聚”是一个心理学家可能试图研究的民间智慧的例子。The researcher might pose a specific hypothesis that"人们倾向于选择在兴趣和教育水平上与他们相似的浪漫伴侣。”“

Elements of a Good Hypothesis

When trying to come up with a good hypothesis for your own research or experiments,问自己以下问题:

  • 你的假设是基于你对某个话题的研究吗??
  • Can your hypothesis be tested??
  • 你的假设包括自变量和因变量吗??

Before you come up with a specific hypothesis,spend some time doing background research on your topic.一旦你完成了文献回顾,开始思考你仍然存在的潜在问题。Pay attention to the discussion section in the你读的日记文章.Many authors will suggest questions that still need to be explored.

如何形成假设

The first step of a psychological investigation is to identify an area of interest and develop a hypothesis that can then be tested.虽然一个假设经常被描述为一种预感或猜测,实际上更具体。一个假设可以被定义为对两个或更多变量之间关系的有教育意义的猜测。

例如,研究人员可能对学习习惯和考试焦虑.

研究者会提出一个假设,关于这两个变量是如何关联的,比如“考试焦虑会因有效的学习习惯而减少。”“

为了形成一个假设,you should take these steps:

  • Start by collecting as many observations about something as you can.
  • 评估这些观察结果并寻找问题的可能原因。
  • 创建一个可能需要探究的解释列表。
  • 在你提出了一些可能的假设之后,重要的是要想办法,你可以通过实验来证实或反驳每一个假设。This is known as falsifiability.

证伪性

用科学的方法,,可证伪性是任何有效假设的重要组成部分。为了科学地检验索赔,这一主张也有可能被证明是错误的。

学生有时会混淆可证伪性的概念,认为它意味着某些东西是假的,which is not the case.可证伪的意思是if有些东西是假的,然后就有可能证明这是错误的。

One of the hallmarks of a pseudoscience is that it makes claims that cannot be refuted or proven false.

操作定义的作用

In the previous example,学习习惯和考试焦虑是这项想象研究的两个变量。变量是一个因素或元素,可以通过可观察和可测量的方式改变和操纵。然而,研究人员还必须使用所谓的操作定义精确定义每个变量的内容。这些定义解释了如何在研究中操纵和测量变量。

In the previous example,a researcher might operationally define the variable"测试焦虑“作为自我报告的结果,衡量考试期间经历的焦虑。The variable"study habits"might be defined by the amount of studying that actually occurs as measured by time.

这些对每个变量的精确描述是很重要的,因为许多事情都可以用许多不同的方法来测量。任何类型的科学研究的基本原则之一是,研究结果必须是可复制的。By clearly detailing the specifics of how the variables were measured and manipulated,other researchers can better understand the results and repeat the study if needed.

Some variables are more difficult than others to define.How would you operationally define a variable such as侵略?出于明显的伦理原因,研究人员无法创造出一种情况,即一个人对他人表现出攻击性。In order to measure this variable,研究人员必须设计一种测量方法,在不伤害他人的情况下评估攻击行为。在这种情况下,研究人员可能会利用模拟任务来衡量攻击性。

实例

A hypothesis often follows a basic format of"If {this happens} then {this will happen}."One way to structure your hypothesis is to describe what will happen to the因变量if you make changes to theindependent variable.

The basic format might be:

“如果这些更改是对某个独立变量,然后我们将观察特定因变量的变化。”“

举几个例子:

  • “吃早餐的学生在数学考试中比不吃早餐的学生表现更好。”“
  • “在英语考试前经历过“考试焦虑”的学生比没有经历过考试焦虑的学生得分更高。”​
  • “Motorists who talk on the phone while driving will be more likely to make errors on a driving course than those who do not talk on the phone."“

假设清单

  • Does your hypothesis focus on something that you can actually test??
  • 你的假设是否包括独立变量和因变量??
  • 你能操纵变量吗??
  • 你的假设能在不违反伦理标准的情况下得到检验吗??

收集你的假设数据

Once a researcher has formed a testable hypothesis,下一步是选择一个研究设计并开始收集数据。研究人员选择的研究方法在很大程度上取决于他们正在研究什么。研究方法有描述性研究和实验性研究两种基本类型。

Descriptive Research Methods

Descriptive research such as案例研究,,自然观察,and surveys are often used when it would be impossible or difficult toconduct an experiment.这些方法最好用来描述行为或心理现象的不同方面。Once a researcher has collected data using descriptive methods,一相关研究can then be used to look at how the variables are related.这种研究方法可能被用来研究一个很难实验验证的假设。

Experimental Research Methods

Experimental methods用于证明变量之间的因果关系。In an experiment,研究人员系统地操纵一个感兴趣的变量(称为自变量),并测量对另一个变量(称为因变量)的影响。Unlike correlational studies,which can only be used to determine if there is a relationship between two variables,实验方法可以用来确定关系的实际性质。也就是说,如果一个变量发生变化,原因another to change.

韦里韦尔的一句话

The hypothesis is a critical part of any scientific exploration.它代表了研究人员期望在研究或实验中发现的东西。In some cases,原始假设将得到支持,研究人员将找到支持他们对不同变量之间关系性质的期望的证据。在其他情况下,the results of the study might fail to support the original hypothesis.

即使在研究不支持假设的情况下,this does not mean that the research is without value.Not only does such research help us better understand how different aspects of the natural world relate to one another,但它也有助于我们开发新的假设,然后可以在未来的研究中进行测试。

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Article Sources
  • NevidJ心理学:概念与应用.贝尔蒙特沃德沃思;2013。